3.11.15

Why predicting Bihar verdict is difficult

Mayank Mishra / BS
Even at the risk of going wrong, I will still talk about some of the broad trends that I observed. My interaction with a range of people in as many as 10 districts of the state has convinced me that there is no fence sitter this time who is going to be swayed this way or that way through last minute campaigning. People have, by and large, made up their mind and they are voting according to their conviction. Higher voter turnout in the first four phases is perhaps an indication of that.

Another visible trend is that Nitish Kumar has retained most of his popularity despite 10 years of incumbency. Even those who said they won’t vote for him did acknowledge that the Nitish Kumar regime has been very good for Bihar. What is more, supporters of Lalu Prasad have begun to take pride in the leadership of Nitish Kumar. Whether the goodwill translates into votes is very difficult to guess though.

And my third observation is that only three leaders—Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad—have occupied mind space in Bihar. They are the ones who are part of most conversation and others are seldom discussed. The outcome therefore will be a reflection of who has occupied the maximum space. more

No comments:

Post a Comment