Suryakiran Tiwari / HT
While most of the opinion polls say the NDA will emerge victorious (in-fact only two, Cicero and CNN IBN put the Grand Alliance on top), all of them consistently show that Kumar is the top choice for the chief minister’s post among voters. The NDA’s unnamed CM candidate comes up with a share which is much lower than the predicted NDA share. This contradiction is unusual and could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
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We considered a small sample of recent elections (for which full data was available) and noticed an interesting trend. In all the cases, the gap between leadership ratings and vote share/ intention to vote ratings was quite small. In fact in the National Election study by CSDS during the Lok Sabha election, the preference for Modi was 35.7%, and the NDA vote share was 38.5%. In 2009, the combined rating of UPA leaders was 39.7% against a vote share of 36.5%. more
While most of the opinion polls say the NDA will emerge victorious (in-fact only two, Cicero and CNN IBN put the Grand Alliance on top), all of them consistently show that Kumar is the top choice for the chief minister’s post among voters. The NDA’s unnamed CM candidate comes up with a share which is much lower than the predicted NDA share. This contradiction is unusual and could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
--- --- ---
We considered a small sample of recent elections (for which full data was available) and noticed an interesting trend. In all the cases, the gap between leadership ratings and vote share/ intention to vote ratings was quite small. In fact in the National Election study by CSDS during the Lok Sabha election, the preference for Modi was 35.7%, and the NDA vote share was 38.5%. In 2009, the combined rating of UPA leaders was 39.7% against a vote share of 36.5%. more
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