Karthik Shashidhar / mint
As Election Metrics has mentioned several times in the past, there are two important steps to forecasting the outcome of elections in India. The first step is to determine the vote shares of different parties, which is usually done using a randomly sampled survey. The next step is to convert the thus obtained vote shares into seats, which is a rather complicated process given India’s first-past-the-post election system.
The problem with a massive realignment of alliances is that pollsters are deprived of a “prior model” in order to convert the vote share predictions to seats. In the absence of such a model, most pollsters have simply extrapolated from the vote share predictions to forecast seat distributions. And such extrapolation continues after the exit polls also. more
As Election Metrics has mentioned several times in the past, there are two important steps to forecasting the outcome of elections in India. The first step is to determine the vote shares of different parties, which is usually done using a randomly sampled survey. The next step is to convert the thus obtained vote shares into seats, which is a rather complicated process given India’s first-past-the-post election system.
The problem with a massive realignment of alliances is that pollsters are deprived of a “prior model” in order to convert the vote share predictions to seats. In the absence of such a model, most pollsters have simply extrapolated from the vote share predictions to forecast seat distributions. And such extrapolation continues after the exit polls also. more
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