6.11.15

What exit polls do not predict about Bihar

Suryakiran Tiwari and Subhash Chandra / daily O
If we take the lower and higher end of the ranges for both alliances across six polls, we get a number that makes no sense. The NDA is expected to draw 93-155 seats, while the MGB is set to get 83-132, according to the exit polls. While Today's Chanakya predicts an outright victory for NDA with 155 seats, the India Today-Cicero one says NDA will emerge as the largest alliance with 120 seats. C-Voter and News Nation, on the other hand, give a simple majority (122 seats) to MGB, while AC Nielsen and CNX give them 130 and 132 respectively.

An average of the polls (poll of polls) shows a marginally-hung Assembly with MGB slated to emerge as the largest alliance with 118 seats and NDA just behind at 117 seats.

In terms of vote share, the average of the polls show no difference between MGB and NDA at 42 per cent. While News Nation expects 46 per cent vote share for MGB, Today's Chanakya projects 46 per cent for NDA. "Others", who have historically been an important component of Bihar politics, also expected to register a 16-17 per cent vote share. more

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