Neelanjan Sircar, Bhanu Joshi, Ashish Ranjan / Hindu
Our data suggests that NDA is in a stronger position going into the 2015 Bihar election, but things could easily go the other way. First, Bihar has serious electoral volatility. Constituencies won by parties in 2010 were often not won again by the same parties in 2014, and a similar shift may occur this time. Second, national parties like the BJP may be more appealing in a national election, but this appeal may not translate as cleanly to the State level. People in Bihar seem satisfied with Nitish Kumar’s tenure as Chief Minister, and NDA will have to make a convincing argument that it can govern better.
At the same time, our analysis suggests that parties will have to rely on much more than a simple caste calculus, as the translation of caste into votes is complicated. The goalposts in Bihar have shifted, and people are talking about vikas more than ever before. more
Our data suggests that NDA is in a stronger position going into the 2015 Bihar election, but things could easily go the other way. First, Bihar has serious electoral volatility. Constituencies won by parties in 2010 were often not won again by the same parties in 2014, and a similar shift may occur this time. Second, national parties like the BJP may be more appealing in a national election, but this appeal may not translate as cleanly to the State level. People in Bihar seem satisfied with Nitish Kumar’s tenure as Chief Minister, and NDA will have to make a convincing argument that it can govern better.
At the same time, our analysis suggests that parties will have to rely on much more than a simple caste calculus, as the translation of caste into votes is complicated. The goalposts in Bihar have shifted, and people are talking about vikas more than ever before. more
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