Sanjay Kumar, Suhas Palshikar / IE
The findings of a pre-poll survey conducted in the last week of September by Lokniti-CSDS, indicate that the BJP alliance is poised to surge ahead of the Maha Gathbandhan by a margin of at least four per cent.
With a four percentage point of difference, the NDA should comfortably sail ahead. But some caveats need to be entered to make the picture complete:
First, respondents have indicated their preference when they did not know the candidates. Given the micro-management of caste factor that is adopted these days, candidate selection acquires much significance.
Two, BJP’s and NDA’s support, though handsome, is too concentrated in urban constituencies and particular regions. So, the figure of 42 per cent can be misleading in the sense that those votes may not necessarily add further to the seats the NDA may win.
Three, a bitter campaign is shaping up only now. It might sway the voters either way. Ten per cent respondents have said that they might change their current choice. Among pro-NDA respondents, such ‘probable changers’ are 12 per cent and among respondents favouring Grand Alliance they account for 8 per cent.
So, the pre-poll trends should be seen only for what they are – trends, not as outcomes. more
The findings of a pre-poll survey conducted in the last week of September by Lokniti-CSDS, indicate that the BJP alliance is poised to surge ahead of the Maha Gathbandhan by a margin of at least four per cent.
With a four percentage point of difference, the NDA should comfortably sail ahead. But some caveats need to be entered to make the picture complete:
First, respondents have indicated their preference when they did not know the candidates. Given the micro-management of caste factor that is adopted these days, candidate selection acquires much significance.
Two, BJP’s and NDA’s support, though handsome, is too concentrated in urban constituencies and particular regions. So, the figure of 42 per cent can be misleading in the sense that those votes may not necessarily add further to the seats the NDA may win.
Three, a bitter campaign is shaping up only now. It might sway the voters either way. Ten per cent respondents have said that they might change their current choice. Among pro-NDA respondents, such ‘probable changers’ are 12 per cent and among respondents favouring Grand Alliance they account for 8 per cent.
So, the pre-poll trends should be seen only for what they are – trends, not as outcomes. more
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