Milan Vaishnav, Saksham Khosla / Carnegie Endowment
The Bihar election, which begins on October 12 and concludes on November 8, will be the biggest electoral test for the Modi-led BJP government thus far. If it prevails, this victory could provide the central government with new momentum. A win would bring the BJP closer to a Rajya Sabha majority and boost its chances ahead of state elections in 2016 and 2017. If it falls short, it would be a big blow, especially because Modi has associated his own reputation so closely with the campaign, even recently announcing a $19 billion economic package for the state.
The election could also make or break the careers of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. Kumar’s star, once among the brightest of all state leaders, has dimmed after the 2014 general election debacle. For Yadav, who will likely return to jail to serve time for a corruption conviction, a victory would maintain his—and his family’s—relevance in state politics. Forming an alliance in Bihar would provide the Congress Party some comfort for its spate of recent electoral defeats and boost the standing of the party’s heir-in-waiting, Rahul Gandhi.
No matter what the voters of Bihar decide, the ramifications will be felt far beyond the state’s borders. more
The Bihar election, which begins on October 12 and concludes on November 8, will be the biggest electoral test for the Modi-led BJP government thus far. If it prevails, this victory could provide the central government with new momentum. A win would bring the BJP closer to a Rajya Sabha majority and boost its chances ahead of state elections in 2016 and 2017. If it falls short, it would be a big blow, especially because Modi has associated his own reputation so closely with the campaign, even recently announcing a $19 billion economic package for the state.
The election could also make or break the careers of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. Kumar’s star, once among the brightest of all state leaders, has dimmed after the 2014 general election debacle. For Yadav, who will likely return to jail to serve time for a corruption conviction, a victory would maintain his—and his family’s—relevance in state politics. Forming an alliance in Bihar would provide the Congress Party some comfort for its spate of recent electoral defeats and boost the standing of the party’s heir-in-waiting, Rahul Gandhi.
No matter what the voters of Bihar decide, the ramifications will be felt far beyond the state’s borders. more
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