Sanjaya Baru / ET
Rarely have the prospects for economic growth and development in India hinged so much on the politics of the state of Bihar. A victory for the BJP in Patna, many hope, will stabilise the government in New Delhi and embolden it to take policy initiatives with the long term in view. A defeat could, some fear and some hope, destabilise the government of Narendra Modi. That could encourage populism and short-termism in policy, or worse.
While a hung assembly may not alter existing power equations across the country, a decisive victory for the Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav combine could set in motion a new political dynamic. If, as a result of such an outcome, Prime Minister Modi and the BJP decide to focus all their attention on the next set of assembly elections, then economic policymaking could go off their radar.
On the other hand, if the prime minister decides that he has only three years to regain ground and get reelected (in 2019), he may choose to ignore the Bihar defeat and focus all energy and attention on better governance and national development. In short, the national policy implications of a BJP defeat in Bihar could be positive or negative depending on the prime minister’s response and strategy going forward. more
Rarely have the prospects for economic growth and development in India hinged so much on the politics of the state of Bihar. A victory for the BJP in Patna, many hope, will stabilise the government in New Delhi and embolden it to take policy initiatives with the long term in view. A defeat could, some fear and some hope, destabilise the government of Narendra Modi. That could encourage populism and short-termism in policy, or worse.
While a hung assembly may not alter existing power equations across the country, a decisive victory for the Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav combine could set in motion a new political dynamic. If, as a result of such an outcome, Prime Minister Modi and the BJP decide to focus all their attention on the next set of assembly elections, then economic policymaking could go off their radar.
On the other hand, if the prime minister decides that he has only three years to regain ground and get reelected (in 2019), he may choose to ignore the Bihar defeat and focus all energy and attention on better governance and national development. In short, the national policy implications of a BJP defeat in Bihar could be positive or negative depending on the prime minister’s response and strategy going forward. more
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